LS POLLS - 28 SIMULTANEOUS ELECTIONS ?

S ome people take great pride in the fact that the LS polls of 2009 are like 28 simultaneous elections on account of the hegemony of the re gional parties in various states . They term it as a healthy sign for the Indian democracy. My take on it is slightly different - had there been 28 national parties contesting the polls , it may have been a healthy sign but a dozen odd regional par ties dictating the show is certainly unhealthy. For, by design or circumstance, the regional parties lack a national outlook which is the cornerstone of Lok Sabha.Thus, while they might put up a facade of unity in the face of emotive issues such as war, communal riots etc, many a time they act as breakers in the acts of progress. The reason being that it is virtually impossible to satisfy all regions in any act of development . In such a sc enario the regional parties wield their disproportionate clout to scuttle / delay it (viz. the women's reservation bill, nuclear deal etc).

FINAL PREDICTIONS

BJP is likely to win 98 - 103 seats ; Congress may garner between 85-93; BJSP would come in third with 18-22 seats and BSP may be the surprise package with 10 –12 seats.; SP could corner 3-5 seats and GGP could land up 2-4;others might secure 1-3 seats.

SUMMARY -ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS 2008

1.These elections were singularly dull - there was no wave and no undercurrent. ( neither pro nor anti ) My take is that there is a wave mostly in the case of major events ( viz. Emergency(1977), Babri Masjid demolition ,Bhopal gas tragedy etc. ) and an undercurrent builds up only over a period of time- both these preconditions were not met this time.

2. There were no major issues - ideally ,having somewhat managed the basic issues ofBiji - Sadak -Pani ( Electricity -Roads- Water ) the state's polity should've evolved to the next level issues of health and education but the parties shortsightedly chose to stick with the former.3. Too many independents- it isn't a healthy sign ( esp. in assembly elections) as they split up crucial votes. In most cases they may not end up winning but may well make another candidate lose. ( At times the mainstream parties encourage them for precisely this reason). Some of the frivolous ones enter for their five minutes of fame or even to make a quick buck ( when the major candidates may pay them to withdraw ).Steps need to be taken to check (if not eliminate ) this mockery of our democracy -to discourage the cult of political entrepreneurs.

3. Too few women candidates - there is a conspiracy of silence among the major parties on this ; Congress had given reservation to women in Panchayats , BJP has announced 50% reservation in municipal bodies ; but when it comes to the assembly elections - competition being so tough - that winnability factor takes over and things remain the same. However, this is perhaps the last time that the mainstream parties can ignore the long pending legitimate demand of women.

4. Too few Muslim candidates- In MP, BJP didn't give ticket to even a single Muslim; Congress gave it to only a handful ;if one sixth of our populace doesn't find representation in proportion, it may create pan India space for a hardliner Muslim party.

5. Too many rebels - it may have something to do with delimitation and the fact that the emergence of new players has created a space but somewhere it has also to do with the singular lack of commitment to ideology.

6. Too few youth-like in the case of women and Muslims youth too have not got the kind of representation that they should have -lip service by all the parties notwithstanding . The few who've managed to land up tickets are politically linked - to their fathers or godfathers. It has a lot to do with the lack of political activity at the College/ University level. Given the fact that a substantial chunk of voters comprises youth, their low representation enhances the flaws of our democracy.

7.Manifestos - were published as an after thought in the last 10 days or so . And mostly were a sort of rebuttal to the other. BSP went to the other extreme of not having a manifesto at all. Both these have a long term impact on our polity - that of scuttling the political debate or not having it at all.

8. Many new techniques( not always commendable ) were applied this time out viz. addressing the rallies on mobile phone ; hiring political workers , using children in campaign, releasing ads on spitritual chhanels etc..

9 The lack of zing this time out is also due to the abridged notification period .

10. Electioneering was more focused in slums and rural areas - the middle classes were not as active participants as they ought to be( esp. in an assembly e lections ).

11. Media lacked maturity (Viz. the use of the hideous concept of impact feature.) - it is all the more reprehensible given that it MP is a developing state and needs responsible press more than others.

12. Relatively peaceful elections- in paticular due to the comparitively peaceful Chambal region. ( Sunil Nayak's murder was an aberration ).

13.Overall higher percentage but marginally less voters ; higher percentage by women and some rural areas - all this points to a slight anti - incumbency against the BJP.

14. Dummy candidates have been used not merely as covers but also to hedge expenses etc. This needs to be sorted out.

15. Relative disconnect of the major parties with the people - reflected in major issues not becoming key factors.(Viz.Coruption, malnutrition etc. )
Posted by mpmediaplatform at 8:36 AM 0 comments

FIVE MAJOR PREDICTIONS OF THIS BLOG

1.BJP is likely to win 85-98 seats ; Congress may garner between 77-88; BJSP would perhaps come in third with 18 –22 seats and BSP may be the surprise package with 8-10 seats; SP could corner 3-5 seats and GGP could land up 2-4.
2.Shivraj Singh will last as the CM for a maximum of one year, if at all . If Uma Bharti gets enough seats to arm twist the BJP, the least she would demand is a new CM. Even otherwise, once the elections have been won , the aspirations of those grassroot leaders who see Shivraj as a paratrooper will view it as the last chance to grab the top spot. Pretenders include Kailash Vijayvargiya , Narendra Singh Tomar , Anup Mishra , Gauri Shankar Shejwar, Himmat Kothari with Jayant Mallaya being the dark horse.
3.A fallout of this will be that Congress will gain relatively in the Lok Sabha elections . ( Since the Hindutva votes would have reached their limit in the assembly polls and the votes of the minor parties would get transferred to the Congress ).This would be a diversion from the trends of previous elections.
4. Most of the sitting /Ex-MP's who've been fielded would lose.
5 This election onwards, coalitions would become a regular feature in Madhya Pradesh - nascent post poll alliances this time ; pre poll alliances led by the major national parties in the next elections ; and if the big national parties do not reinvent themselves in the state- alliances led by regional parties could not be a farfetched idea within the next decade.

FIVE MAJOR PREDICTIONS OF THESE BLOGS

1.BJP is likely to win 85-98 seats ; Congress may garner between 77-88; BJSP would perhaps come in third with 18 –22 seats and BSP may be the surprise package with 8-10 seats; SP could corner 3-5 seats and GGP could land up 2-4.

2.Shivraj Singh will last as the CM for a maximum of one year, if at all . If Uma Bharti gets enough seats to arm twist the BJP, the least she would demand is a new CM. Even otherwise, once the elections have been won , the aspirations of those grassroot leaders who see Shivraj as a paratrooper will view it as the last chance to grab the top spot. Pretenders include Kailash Vijayvargiya , Narendra Singh Tomar , Anup Mishra , Gauri Shankar Shejwar, Himmat Kothari with Jayant Mallaya being the dark horse.
3.A fallout of this will be that Congress will gain relatively in the Lok Sabha elections . ( Since the Hindutva votes would have reached their limit in the assembly polls and the votes of the minor parties would get transferred to the Congress ).This would be a diversion from the trends of previous elections.
4. Most of the sitting /Ex-MP's who've been fielded would lose.
5 This election onwards, coalitions would become a regular feature in Madhya Pradesh - nascent post poll alliances this time ; pre poll alliances led by the major national parties in the next elections ; and if the big national parties do not reinvent themselves in the state- alliances led by regional parties could not be a farfetched idea within the next decade.

ONLY MEDIA, NO JOURNALISM

Media( Esp. Regional media ) has played a bit role in the subversion of democracy in MP. Earlier too, it was an open secret that during elections ( in particular ) a few journalists do the cash for publishing stuff. However , their numbers have grown to the extent that one is forced to echo the recent outpouring of a senior journalist who said "Where is journalism left in India ? It is all merely media now. ". Even leading newspapers and TV channels have become brazen about it in that they've gone full hog for the hideous concept of impact features ( carrying hyped misleading public relations material in the garb of news thus misleading a certain unsuspecting section of the electorate ) . Furthermore , journalism used to have some pretensions of being an intellectual pursuit - something which it has altogether given up ( Earlier journalists were supposed to be " Buddhijeevi": earning their living by the intellect ; now they're mostly " Shramjeevi " : living by labour ). During the elections, journalists ( print journalists in particular ) used to shape/influence the agenda rather than merely report it (as is the case now). This time out too there were some steps in positive direction viz. a move by some newspapers to build a public agenda by seeking public opinion. However, nobody has covered all the three things - reporting public opinion( what the public wants), carrying leaders agenda ( what do the leaders stand for ) as alsoeducating people ( what ought to be done ). In particular, the last aspect is a casualty - hence most Editors have been dispensed with or have become managers or managers operate as Editors. Till , all three aspects are covered , journalism's role in helping voters to make an informed/ educated choice will remain marginal. To that extent our democracy will continue to remain seriously flawed. Thus , in these elections we have mostly media , little journalism.

CAMPAIGN

BJP'S campaign as always has been much more tech savvy ( LED's , addressing people on cellphones et al ); much better use of the new media ( SMS , social networking sites etc. ). Congress has done only marginally better this time with an engineer being at the helm but is still not upto the mark. Besides, it has not been able to utilise its traditional strengths of audio canvassing and door to door campaign - for, these require much longer time which the party never had.
Campaign in the past two elections has been rather strange in MP - till the very last phase it appears to be a relatively smooth ride for the ruling party but as the D-Day approaches a strong undercurrent builds up for the opposition. This happens only when the incumbent government is walking on thin ice - in not having done "real" work relative to the hype. It was the case in Digvijay's second term as also to some extent in Shivraj's half term. ( On the other hand it may not work all that much in Chhattisgarh since Raman Singh has done substantive work and also had a full term to do it). In a way a somnambulant opposition during the term is a double edged sword-While on the one hand it reduces the chances of change in power ( esp. if the incumbent government does good work ), on the other it puts the ruling party in a sort of a lull bordering on overconfidence ( in particular if the team comprises inexperienced/non-grassroots/ mediocres)